Current and historical climate signatures to deconstructed tree species richness pattern in South America - doi: 10.4025/actascibiolsci.v35i2.14202

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to investigate the importance of present and historical climate as determinants of current species richness pattern of forestry trees in South America. The study predicted the distribution of 217 tree species using Maxent models, and calculated the potential species richness pattern, which was further deconstructed based on range sizes and modeled against current and historical climates predictors using Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWR) analyses. The current climate explains more of the wide-ranging species richness patterns than that of the narrow-ranging species, while the historical climate explained an equally small amount of variance for both narrow-and-wide ranging tree species richness patterns. The richness deconstruction based on range size revealed that the influences of current and historical climate hypotheses underlying patterns in South American tree species richness differ from those found in the Northern Hemisphere. Notably, the historical climate appears to be an important determinant of richness only in regions with marked climate changes and proved Pleistocenic refuges, while the current climate predicts the species richness across those Neotropical regions, with non-evident refuges in the Last Glacial Maximum. Thus, this study's analyses show that these climate hypotheses are complementary to explain the South American tree species richness. Keywords: climate changes, glacial refuges, water-energy availability, GWR analysis, spatial non-stationarity