Identificando o endividamento dos estados brasileiros: uma proposta através de análise discriminante - doi: 10.4025/enfoque.v25i1.3504

Abstract

The debt of Brazilian States, originated from the external crisis, starting at the beginning of the 80's, and up to the present days without a satisfactory solution, is a central matter in the process of adjustment of the public sector. The effort for promoting a reduction in debts has culminated with the implantation of LRF, whose objective, among others, is the debt control. But, when the debt condition is studied, people come across several formulas to calculate it. Nevertheless, it is observed that every different author tries to demonstrate debt issues in his/her own way, for believing that his own way is the best way of showing it, thus, a range of different ways can be seen. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to propose a function, to represent the situation of the debt of Brazilian States. To accomplish the objective, nine debt indicators were selected, and calculations were made for a period comprising from 2001 to 2003. Afterwards, the statistical technique known as Discriminative Analysis was applied. Considering the results, after attending the presuppositions, it was concluded that the variables that best represent the debt situation of Brazilian States form the following function: Z = - 5,426 + 0,467 (DC/RCL) - 0,174 [(PF - AF) / RC] + 0,210 (DT/RO). Thus, it was demonstrated that the debt cannot be explained by a single indicator, in fact, it is necessary a group of indicators statistically gathered to get to a good result.